Beberapa jam lagi, kita sudah akan mengetahui siapa yang akan menjadi para pemenang Academy Awards yang ke-89. Di waktu injury time ini, kami mencoba untuk memprediksi para pemenang.
Tahun ini merupakan tahun ketiga kami. Di tahun pertama, kami berhasil tepat 83.33% (benar 20 dari 24 nominasi). Di tahun kedua, kami berhasil tepat 70.08% (benar 17 dari 24 nominasi), yang mayoritas kesalahannya karena salah menebak kategori shorts, dan beberapa suprising winner (Ex Machina).
Singkat saja, berikut adalah hasil prediksi kami. Semoga tahun ini bisa memberikan rapor yang lebih baik dari tahun lalu.
Best Picture
Nominations:
- Arrival – Shawn Levy, Dan Levine, Aaron Ryder, and David Linde
- Fences – Scott Rudin, Denzel Washington, and Todd Bla9ck
- Hacksaw Ridge – Bill Mechanic and David Permut
- Hell or High Water – Carla Hacken and Julie Yorn
- Hidden Figures – Donna Gigliotti, Peter Chernin, Jenno Topping, Pharrell Williams, and Theodore Melfi
- La La Land – Fred Berger, Jordan Horowitz, and Marc Platt
- Lion – Emile Sherman, Iain Canning, and Angie Fielder
- Manchester by the Sea – Matt Damon, Kimberly Steward, Chris Moore, Lauren Beck, and Kevin J. Walsh
- Moonlight – Adele Romanski, Dede Gardner, and Jeremy Kleiner
And the prediction goes to…
La La Land – Fred Berger, Jordan Horowitz, and Marc Platt
Sudah tidak perlu berlama-lama. Film yang meraih nominasi terbanyak di tahun ini, patut jadi jawaranya. Setelah melibas Golden Globes ataupun BAFTA, “La La Land” sudah menjadi bukti kuat kalau film ini terlalu mudah untuk difavoritkan.
Our surprising winner…
Moonlight – Adele Romanski, Dede Gardner, and Jeremy Kleiner
Jika “Moonlight” menang, saya akan cukup terkejut. Sebab saingan kuat “La La Land” ini berhasil merebut hati para film critics.
Best Director
Nominations:
- Denis Villeneuve – Arrival
- Mel Gibson – Hacksaw Ridge
- Damien Chazelle – La La Land
- Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea
- Barry Jenkins – Moonlight
And the prediction goes to…
Damien Chazelle – La La Land
Sutradara “Whiplash” ini sudah tidak perlu diragukan jadi pemenang tahun ini.
Our surprising winner…
Barry Jenkins – Moonlight
Best Actor
Nominations:
- Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea as Lee Chandler
- Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge as Desmond T. Doss
- Ryan Gosling – La La Land as Sebastian Wilder
- Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic as Ben Cash
- Denzel Washington – Fences as Troy Maxson
And the prediction goes to…
Denzel Washington – Fences as Troy Maxson
Saat Denzel berhasil memenangkan SAG, saya cukup yakin untuk menjagokannya. Awalnya mungkin saya akan memilih Casey Affleck, namun “Fences” kelihatannya lebih berhasil mencuri perhatian sejak akhir tahun kemarin.
Our surprising winner…
Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea as Lee Chandler
Best Actress
Nominations:
- Isabelle Huppert – Elle as Michèle Leblanc
- Ruth Negga – Loving as Mildred Loving
- Natalie Portman – Jackie as Jackie Kennedy
- Emma Stone – La La Land as Mia Dolan
- Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins as Florence Foster Jenkins
And the prediction goes to…
Emma Stone – La La Land as Mia Dolan
Tahun ini saya cukup sulit untuk menentukan pemenangnya. Apalagi sekali lagi membuktikan kalau Meryl Streep akan tetap menjadi all-time favourites para academy. Kali ini saya akan berpihak kepada Emma Stone. Walaupun Huppert berhasil meraih Golden Globes, tetapi balik lagi, mayoritas anggota Academy adalah American, jadi mungkin mereka akan lebih memilih Stone.
Our surprising winner…
Isabelle Huppert – Elle as Michèle Leblanc
Best Supporting Actor
Nominations:
- Mahershala Ali – Moonlight as Juan
- Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water as Marcus Hamilton
- Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea as Patrick Chandler
- Dev Patel – Lion as Saroo Brierley
- Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals as Detective Bobby Andes
And the prediction goes to…
Mahershala Ali – Moonlight as Juan
There is no surprising winner for this category.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominations:
- Viola Davis – Fences as Rose Maxson
- Naomie Harris – Moonlight as Paula
- Nicole Kidman – Lion as Sue Brierley
- Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures as Dorothy Vaughan
- Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea as Randi
And the prediction goes to…
Viola Davis – Fences as Rose Maxson
Tahun ini wajib jadi tahun Davis. Bila Ia berhasil menang, Ia akan menjadi aktris kulit hitam pertama yang berhasil meraih Golden Globe, Oscar, Tony, dan SAG secara bersamaan. Davis juga merupakan aktris kulit hitam peraih nominasi Oscar terbanyak. Davis sudah mencuri perhatian sejak bermain di “Doubt”, dan sedikit membuat saya kecewa ketika Ia gagal memenangkan Oscar melalui “The Help.” Kali ini, saya cukup yakin, apalagi melihat saingannya yang tidak semenonjol dirinya.
Our surprising winner…
Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea as Randi
Best Original Screenplay
Nominations:
- Hell or High Water – Taylor Sheridan
- La La Land – Damien Chazelle
- The Lobster – Yorgos Lanthimos and Efthimis Filippou
- Manchester by the Sea – Kenneth Lonergan
- 20th Century Women – Mike Mills
And the prediction goes to…
Manchester by the Sea – Kenneth Lonergan
Saat “Moonlight” yang berhasil meraih WGA, namun tidak masuk ke jenis Original, “Manchester by the Sea” adalah andalan saya berikutnya.
Our surprising winner…
La La Land – Damien Chazelle
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominations:
- Arrival – Eric Heisserer from “Story of Your Life” by Ted Chiang
- Fences – August Wilson from Fences by August Wilson (posthumous nomination)
- Hidden Figures – Allison Schroeder and Theodore Melfi from Hidden Figures by Margot Lee Shetterly
- Lion – Luke Davies from A Long Way Home by Saroo Brierley and Larry Buttrose
- Moonlight – Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin McCraney from In Moonlight Black Boys Look Blue by Tarell Alvin McCraney
And the prediction goes to…
Moonlight – Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin McCraney from In Moonlight Black Boys Look Blue by Tarell Alvin McCraney
Our surprising winner…
Arrival – Eric Heisserer from “Story of Your Life” by Ted Chiang
Best Animated Feature Film
Nominations:
- Kubo and the Two Strings – Travis Knight and Arianne Sutner
- Moana – John Musker, Ron Clements, and Osnat Shurer
- My Life as a Zucchini – Claude Barras and Max Karli
- The Red Turtle – Michaël Dudok de Wit and Toshio Suzuki
- Zootopia – Byron Howard, Rich Moore, and Clark Spencer
And the prediction goes to…
Zootopia – Byron Howard, Rich Moore, and Clark Spencer
Saya sudah bisa menduganya seusai menyaksikan film ini. “Zootopia” dirancang terlalu kaya akan makna dan berhasil menggambarkan realita lewat penggambaran para hewan.
Our surprising winner…
Moana – John Musker, Ron Clements, and Osnat Shurer
Best Foreign Language Film
Nominations:
- Land of Mine (Denmark) in Danish – Martin Zandvliet
- A Man Called Ove (Sweden) in Swedish – Hannes Holm
- The Salesman (Iran) in Persian – Asghar Farhadi
- Tanna (Australia) in Nauvhal – Martin Butler and Bentley Dean
- Toni Erdmann (Germany) in German – Maren Ade
And the prediction goes to…
The Salesman (Iran) in Persian – Asghar Farhadi
Untuk kategori yang paling sulit ditebak ini, jangan tanya saya apa alasannya.
Our surprising winner…
A Man Called Ove (Sweden) in Swedish – Hannes Holm
Best Documentary – Feature
Nominations:
- Fire at Sea – Gianfranco Rosi and Donatella Palermo
- I Am Not Your Negro – Raoul Peck, Rémi Grellety, and Hébert Peck
- Life, Animated – Roger Ross Williams and Julie Goldman
- J.: Made in America – Ezra Edelman and Caroline Waterlow
- 13th – Ava DuVernay, Spencer Averick, and Howard Barish
And the prediction goes to…
O.J.: Made in America – Ezra Edelman and Caroline Waterlow
Our surprising winner…
13th – Ava DuVernay, Spencer Averick, and Howard Barish
Best Documentary – Short Subject
Nominations:
- Extremis – Dan Krauss
- 1 Miles – Daphne Matziaraki
- Joe’s Violin – Kahane Cooperman and Raphaela Neihausen
- Watani: My Homeland – Marcel Mettelsiefen and Stephen Ellis
- The White Helmets – Orlando von Einsiedel and Joanna Natasegara
And the prediction goes to…
The White Helmets – Orlando von Einsiedel and Joanna Natasegara
Our surprising winner…
Joe’s Violin – Kahane Cooperman and Raphaela Neihausen
Best Live Action Short Film
Nominations:
- Ennemis intérieurs – Sélim Azzazi
- La Femme et le TGV – Timo von Gunten and Giacun Caduff
- Silent Nights – Aske Bang and Kim Magnusson
- Sing – Kristóf Deák and Anna Udvardy
- Timecode – Juanjo Giménez
And the prediction goes to…
Ennemis intérieurs – Sélim Azzazi
Our surprising winner…
Timecode – Juanjo Giménez
Best Animated Short Film
Nominations:
- Blind Vaysha – Theodore Ushev
- Borrowed Time – Andrew Coats and Lou Hamou-Lhadj
- Pear Cider and Cigarettes – Robert Valley and Cara Speller
- Pearl – Patrick Osborne
- Piper – Alan Barillaro and Marc Sondheimer
And the prediction goes to…
Piper – Alan Barillaro and Marc Sondheimer
Our surprising winner…
Blind Vaysha – Theodore Ushev
Best Original Score
Nominations:
- Jackie – Mica Levi
- La La Land – Justin Hurwitz
- Lion – Dustin O’Halloran and Hauschka
- Moonlight – Nicholas Britell
- Passengers – Thomas Newman
And the prediction goes to…
La La Land – Justin Hurwitz
Our surprising winner…
Lion – Dustin O’Halloran and Hauschka
Best Original Song
Nominations:
- “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land – Music by Justin Hurwitz, Lyric by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul
- “Can’t Stop the Feeling!” from Trolls – Music and Lyric by Justin Timberlake, Max Martin, and Karl Johan Schuster (Shellback)
- “City of Stars” from La La Land – Music by Justin Hurwitz, Lyric by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul
- “The Empty Chair” from Jim: The James Foley Story – Music and Lyric by J. Ralph and Sting
- “How Far I’ll Go” from Moana – Music and Lyric by Lin-Manuel Miranda
And the prediction goes to…
“City of Stars” from La La Land – Music by Justin Hurwitz, Lyric by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul
Our surprising winner…
“How Far I’ll Go” from Moana – Music and Lyric by Lin-Manuel Miranda
Best Sound Editing
Nominations:
- Arrival – Sylvain Bellemare
- Deepwater Horizon – Wylie Stateman and Renée Tondelli
- Hacksaw Ridge – Robert Mackenzie and Andy Wright
- La La Land – Ai-Ling Lee and Mildred Iatrou Morgan
- Sully – Alan Robert Murray and Bub Asman
And the prediction goes to…
Hacksaw Ridge – Robert Mackenzie and Andy Wright
Our surprising winner…
La La Land – Ai-Ling Lee and Mildred Iatrou Morgan
Best Sound Mixing
Nominations:
- Arrival – Bernard Gariépy Strobl and Claude La Haye
- Hacksaw Ridge – Kevin O’Connell, Andy Wright, Robert Mackenzie, and Peter Grace
- La La Land – Andy Nelson, Ai-Ling Lee, and Steve A. Morrow
- Rogue One: A Star Wars Story – David Parker, Christopher Scarabosio, and Stuart Wilson
- 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi – Gary Summers, Jeffrey J. Haboush, and Mac Ruth
And the prediction goes to…
Hacksaw Ridge – Kevin O’Connell, Andy Wright, Robert Mackenzie, and Peter Grace
Our surprising winner…
La La Land – Andy Nelson, Ai-Ling Lee, and Steve A. Morrow
Best Production Design
Nominations:
- Arrival – Patrice Vermette and Paul Hotte
- Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them – Stuart Craig and Anna Pinnock
- Hail, Caesar! – Jess Gonchor and Nancy Haigh
- La La Land – David Wasco and Sandy Reynolds-Wasco
- Passengers – Guy Hendrix Dyas and Gene Serdena
And the prediction goes to…
La La Land – David Wasco and Sandy Reynolds-Wasco
Our surprising winner…
Arrival – Patrice Vermette and Paul Hotte
Best Cinematography
Nominations:
- Arrival – Bradford Young
- La La Land – Linus Sandgren
- Lion – Greig Fraser
- Moonlight – James Laxton
- Silence – Rodrigo Prieto
And the prediction goes to…
La La Land – Linus Sandgren
Our surprising winner…
Arrival – Bradford Young
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominations:
- A Man Called Ove – Eva von Bahr and Love Larson
- Star Trek Beyond – Joel Harlow and Richard Alonzo
- Suicide Squad – Alessandro Bertolazzi, Giorgio Gregorini, and Christopher Nelson
And the prediction goes to…
Star Trek Beyond – Joel Harlow and Richard Alonzo
Our surprising winner…
Suicide Squad – Alessandro Bertolazzi, Giorgio Gregorini, and Christopher Nelson
Best Costume Design
Nominations:
- Allied – Joanna Johnston
- Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them – Colleen Atwood
- Florence Foster Jenkins – Consolata Boyle
- Jackie – Madeline Fontaine
- La La Land – Mary Zophres
And the prediction goes to…
La La Land – Mary Zophres
Our surprising winner…
Jackie – Madeline Fontaine
Best Film Editing
Nominations:
- Arrival – Joe Walker
- Hacksaw Ridge – John Gilbert
- Hell or High Water – Jake Roberts
- La La Land – Tom Cross
- Moonlight – Nat Sanders and Joi McMillon
And the prediction goes to…
La La Land – Tom Cross
Our surprising winner…
Hacksaw Ridge – John Gilbert
Best Visual Effects
Nominations:
- Deepwater Horizon – Craig Hammack, Jason Snell, Jason Billington, and Burt Dalton
- Doctor Strange – Stephane Ceretti, Richard Bluff, Vincent Cirelli, and Paul Corbould
- The Jungle Book – Robert Legato, Adam Valdez, Andrew R. Jones, and Dan Lemmon
- Kubo and the Two Strings – Steve Emerson, Oliver Jones, Brian McLean, and Brad Schiff
- Rogue One: A Star Wars Story – John Knoll, Mohen Leo, Hal Hickel, and Neil Corbould
And the prediction goes to…
The Jungle Book – Robert Legato, Adam Valdez, Andrew R. Jones, and Dan Lemmon
Our surprising winner…
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story – John Knoll, Mohen Leo, Hal Hickel, and Neil Corbould
Demikian prediksi dari kami.
